Assessment of uncertainty in river flow projections for the Mekong River using multiple GCMs and hydrological models

Hydrological model-related uncertainty is often ignored within climate change hydrological impact assessments. A MIKE SHE model is developed for the Mekong using the same data as an earlier semi-distributed, conceptual model (SLURP). The model is calibrated and validated using discharge at 12 gauging stations. Two sets of climate change scenarios are investigated. The first is based on a 2 °C increase in global mean temperature (the hypothesised threshold of ‘dangerous’ climate change), as simulated by seven GCMs. There are considerable differences in scenario discharge between GCMs, ranging from catchment-wide increases in mean discharge (up to 12.7%; CCCMA CGCM31, NCAR CCSM30), decreases (up to 21.6% in the upper catchments; CSIRO Mk30, IPSL CM4), and spatially varying responses (UKMO HadCM3 and HadGEM1, MPI ECHAM5). Inter-GCM differences are largely driven by differences in precipitation. The second scenario set (HadCM3, increases in global mean temperature of 1–6 °C) shows consistently greater discharge (maximum: 28.7%) in the upper catchment as global temperature increases, primarily due to increasing precipitation. Further downstream, discharge is strongly influenced by increasing PET, which outweighs impacts of elevated upstream precipitation and causes consistent discharge reductions for higher temperatures (maximum: −5.3% for the main Mekong). MIKE SHE results for all scenarios are compared with those from the SLURP catchment model and the Mac-PDM.09 global hydrological model. Although hydrological model-related uncertainty is evident, its magnitude is smaller than that associated with choice of GCM. In most cases, the three hydrological models simulate the same direction of change in mean discharge. Mac-PDM.09 simulates the largest discharge increases when they occur, which is responsible for some differences in direction of change at downstream gauging stations for some scenarios, especially HadCM3. Inter-hydrological model differences are likely attributed to alternative model structures, process representations and PET methods (Linacre for MIKE SHE and SLURP, Penman–Monteith for Mac-PDM.09)

A global assessment of the impact of climate change on water scarcity

This paper presents a global scale assessment of the impact of climate change on water scarcity. Patterns of climate change from 21 Global Climate Models (GCMs) under four SRES scenarios are applied to a global hydrological model to estimate water resources across 1339 watersheds. The Water Crowding Index (WCI) and the Water Stress Index (WSI) are used to calculate exposure to increases and decreases in global water scarcity due to climate change. 1.6 (WCI) and 2.4 (WSI) billion people are estimated to be currently living within watersheds exposed to water scarcity. Using the WCI, by 2050 under the A1B scenario, 0.5 to 3.1 billion people are exposed to an increase in water scarcity due to climate change (range across 21 GCMs). This represents a higher upper-estimate than previous assessments because scenarios are constructed from a wider range of GCMs. A substantial proportion of the uncertainty in the global-scale effect of climate change on water scarcity is due to uncertainty in the estimates for South Asia and East Asia. Sensitivity to the WCI and WSI thresholds that define water scarcity can be comparable to the sensitivity to climate change pattern. More of the world will see an increase in exposure to water scarcity than a decrease due to climate change but this is not consistent across all climate change patterns. Additionally, investigation of the effects of a set of prescribed global mean temperature change scenarios show rapid increases in water scarcity due to climate change across many regions of the globe, up to 2°C, followed by stabilisation to 4°C

Variability of Quasilinear Diffusion Coefficients for Plasmaspheric Hiss

In the outer radiation belt, the acceleration and loss of high‐energy electrons is largely controlled by wave‐particle interactions. Quasilinear diffusion coefficients are an efficient way to capture the small‐scale physics of wave‐particle interactions due to magnetospheric wave modes such as plasmaspheric hiss. The strength of quasilinear diffusion coefficients as a function of energy and pitch angle depends on both wave parameters and plasma parameters such as ambient magnetic field strength, plasma number density, and composition. For plasmaspheric hiss in the magnetosphere, observations indicate large variations in the wave intensity and wave normal angle, but less is known about the simultaneous variability of the magnetic field and number density. We use in situ measurements from the Van Allen Probe mission to demonstrate the variability of selected factors that control the size and shape of pitch angle diffusion coefficients: wave intensity, magnetic field strength, and electron number density. We then compare with the variability of diffusion coefficients calculated individually from colocated and simultaneous groups of measurements. We show that the distribution of the plasmaspheric hiss diffusion coefficients is highly non‐Gaussian with large variance and that the distributions themselves vary strongly across the three phase space bins studied. In most bins studied, the plasmaspheric hiss diffusion coefficients tend to increase with geomagnetic activity, but our results indicate that new approaches that include natural variability may yield improved parameterizations. We suggest methods like stochastic parameterization of wave‐particle interactions could use variability information to improve modeling of the outer radiation belt

The ionised, radical and molecular Milky Way: spectroscopic surveys with the SKA

The bandwith, sensitivity and sheer survey speed of the SKA offers unique potential for deep spectroscopic surveys of the Milky Way. Within the frequency bands available to the SKA lie many transitions that trace the ionised, radical and molecular components of the interstellar medium and which will revolutionise our understanding of many physical processes. In this chapter we describe the impact on our understanding of the Milky Way that can be achieved by spectroscopic SKA surveys, including "out of the box" early science with radio recombination lines, Phase 1 surveys of the molecular ISM using anomalous formaldehyde absorption, and full SKA surveys of ammonia inversion lines

Genetic Reconstruction of Protozoan rRNA Decoding Sites Provides a Rationale for Paromomycin Activity against Leishmania and Trypanosoma

Aminoglycoside antibiotics target the ribosomal decoding A-site and are active against a broad spectrum of bacteria. These compounds bind to a highly conserved stem-loop-stem structure in helix 44 of bacterial 16S rRNA. One particular aminoglycoside, paromomycin, also shows potent antiprotozoal activity and is used for the treatment of parasitic infections, e.g. by Leishmania spp. The precise drug target is, however, unclear; in particular whether aminoglycoside antibiotics target the cytosolic and/or the mitochondrial protozoan ribosome. To establish an experimental model for the study of protozoan decoding-site function, we constructed bacterial chimeric ribosomes where the central part of bacterial 16S rRNA helix 44 has been replaced by the corresponding Leishmania and Trypanosoma rRNA sequences. Relating the results from in-vitro ribosomal assays to that of in-vivo aminoglycoside activity against Trypanosoma brucei, as assessed in cell cultures and in a mouse model of infection, we conclude that aminoglycosides affect cytosolic translation while the mitochondrial ribosome of trypanosomes is not a target for aminoglycoside antibiotics

Fast Purcell-enhanced single photon source in 1,550-nm telecom band from a resonant quantum dot-cavity coupling

High-bit-rate nanocavity-based single photon sources in the 1,550-nm telecom band are challenges facing the development of fibre-based long-haul quantum communication networks. Here we report a very fast single photon source in the 1,550-nm telecom band, which is achieved by a large Purcell enhancement that results from the coupling of a single InAs quantum dot and an InP photonic crystal nanocavity. At a resonance, the spontaneous emission rate was enhanced by a factor of 5 resulting a record fast emission lifetime of 0.2 ns at 1,550 nm. We also demonstrate that this emission exhibits an enhanced anti-bunching dip. This is the first realization of nanocavity-enhanced single photon emitters in the 1,550-nm telecom band. This coupled quantum dot cavity system in the telecom band thus provides a bright high-bit-rate non-classical single photon source that offers appealing novel opportunities for the development of a long-haul quantum telecommunication system via optical fibres.Comment: 16 pages, 4 figure

Issues potentially affecting quality of life arising from long-term medicines use: a qualitative study

Background Polypharmacy is increasing and managing large number of medicines may create a burden for patients. Many patients have negative views of medicines and their use can adversely affect quality of life. No studies have specifically explored the impact of general long-term medicines use on quality of life. Objective To determine the issues which patients taking long-term medicines consider affect their day-to-day lives, including quality of life. Setting Four primary care general practices in North West England Methods Face-to-face interviews with adults living at home, prescribed four or more regular medicines for at least 1 year. Interviewees were identified from primary care medical records and purposively selected to ensure different types of medicines use. Interviews were recorded, transcribed and analysed thematically. Results Twenty-one interviews were conducted and analysed. Patients used an average of 7.8 medicines, 51 % were preventive, 40 % for symptom relief and 9 % treatment. Eight themes emerged: relationships with health professionals, practicalities, information, efficacy, side effects, attitudes, impact and control. Ability to discuss medicines with health professionals varied and many views were coloured by negative experiences, mainly with doctors. All interviewees had developed routines for using multiple medicines, some requiring considerable effort. Few felt able to exert control over medicines routines specified by health professionals. Over half sought additional information about medicines whereas others avoided this, trusting in doctors to guide their medicines use. Patients recognised their inability to assess efficacy for many medicines, notably those used for prophylaxis. All were concerned about possible side effects and some had poor experiences of discussing concerns with doctors. Medicines led to restrictions on social activities and personal life to the extent that, for some, life can revolve around medicines. Conclusion There is a multiplicity and complexity of issues surrounding medicines use, which impact on day-to-day lives for patients with long-term conditions. While most patients adapt to long-term medicines use, others did so at some cost to their quality of life

Relationship between temporomandibular joint dynamics and mouthguards: feasibility of a test method

A test system was developed establishing the feasibility of collecting biomechanical data as they relate to the use of mouthguards. Previous experimental studies have examined the physical and mechanical properties of mouthguard materials. This information has been used as a guide for establishing material standards and specifications for the fabrication of mouthguards, but it lacks the key biomechanical parameters required for a thorough mouthguard evaluation. The current study was designed to assess whether the impact force, condylar deflection, and strain superior to the temporomandibular joint region could be measured. A drop test was conducted on a cadaveric specimen to simulate loading at the chin point. To measure the force of impact, an accelerometer was attached to an impactor of known mass. High-speed biplanar (1000 frames per second) radiographs were used to determine condylar displacement. Radio-opaque markers were inserted into the bone at predetermined locations. Total displacement of these markers was determined in reference to anatomical landmarks. Strain gauges were attached to the mandible and skull to monitor the effects of the condyle impacting the base of the skull. Based on the data collected, forces were calculated by determining the product of the time-based acceleration and known mass. A measurable change in force between the mouthguards and the control (no mouthguard) was demonstrated. The average condylar displacement was successfully measured and indicated as an increase in total deflection for impacts conducted with mouthguards. Quantifiable strain was measured in the region above the mandibular fossa with and without the insertion of a mouthguard at all impact conditions. However, it was determined that additional gauges would provide critical data. Key biomechanical parameters for chin-point impacts were determined in the current study. The technique demonstrated that both displacement within the mandibular fossa and loading of the condyles occur during the impact event. Although the current study established a technique that can be used to examine the relationship between mouthguards and jaw-joint injuries, the role, if any, mouthguards play in the reduction of injuries cannot be established until a thorough analysis is completed.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/74031/1/j.1600-9657.2004.00213.x.pd